Bitcoin is on everyone’s mind these days. The digital currency seems to have shattered record after record, but some investors are still uncertain whether the „B” is here to stay. If it’s not, perhaps investing in this virtual piece of code is a waste of quite real money. But if it is, should you invest now or perhaps hold off, adopting a „wait-and-see” approach? According to the experts, you need to be careful not to overplay your hand. In just 3 years Bitcoin may not be as easy to find anymore…

According to the Bitcoin News Show, the value of Bitcoin is constantly propped up by other cryptocurrencies who treat is fundamental, referring to it and building on it their own gains in value. „Since Ethereum and most ICOs have little fundamentals, the value would inevitably be driven back into Bitcoin, once people slowly realize how valuable Bitcoin really is,” says Vortex, the host of the show. But even though the other currencies lose out to the big „B”, the overall cryptocurrency market is gaining momentum seemingly out of nowhere. Historically, the trend is a stair step (meaning after a rise and fall the currency lands on a stable plateau for a while, then starts climbing again) because there is an unceasing, inherent drive behind it all.

 
 His thoughts are echoed by the founder of CryptoBnB Tariq Alwahedi, who is also adamant that this is not a new market phenomenon. „What’s happening now is reminiscent of the dot com bubble in 1998, when you saw a huge money flowing into the dot com companies,” claims Tariq, drawing a somewhat gloomy parallel. However, it’s not as bad as it seems. „Yes, there was a bubble that happened, but let’s be frank, what’s happening in the industry today, is that many of those companies that formed during that time are shaping the online industry today,” he explains. But will this result in a massive(r) correction in the coming months?

Tariq is not certain of the immediate future, but is quite confident of the overall trend. „I can’t say if it’s a bubble or not, but there is a huge rush towards it. The market is very bullish right now. Corrections always can happen, but this is not hype any more.” In other words, even if a true correction is coming, the recently underperforming currency may in fact become a golden ticket for most savvy investors. These will bear out the upcoming sell-offs, inevitable in the wake of a recent downtrend, only to reap the possible dividends much further down the line.

 
„The dot com bubble at its height was in the trillions, and the crypto market cap is still only roughly $300 billion at the time of this writing,” says Tariq, adding, „We’ve still got a long way to go.” At the time of writing, the rumoured correction was more than likely. This is following the hesitation of the market to adopt the currency as a more mainstream futures contracts trading medium.

Meanwhile, experts predict that a single Bitcoin will be worth up to a million dollars come 2020. „The limited supply combined with the upcoming halving in 2020 will see to Bitcoin in the six digits by 2021,” says Vortex. He’s referring to a halving milestone that will occur in June 2020. After that date, any single production (mining) of the new Bitcoins will create 1/2 of the previously mined amount, ensuring the built-in limit of the currency’s supply is not exhausted too fast. That limit is 21 million, and we are now at 17 million in theoretical supply. We’re definitely near the endgame.

 
 Investors know that supply will dry out eventually, but they also realize that actual circulation is lower than expected. Already USD 30 bln worth of Bitcoin has been lost. That includes Satoshi Nakamoto’s (the creator of the currency) own coins mined at the creation of the medium eight years ago. His private Bitcoin fortune is valued at over USD 8 bln, but is not in any active use. Unlike paper money, Bitcoin cannot be destroyed, but it can be forgotten or become inaccessible to its owner. It can exist as a supplied currency, but out of all trades. This should dilute the value of all other Bitcoins according to the classic economic theory, but seems to work the opposite way in a limited-supply economy. According to Chainanalysis, over 2 percent of the currency’s supply in 2017 were lost this way. So at hitting the halfway point in 2020, the tradable supply will definitely not be at the theoretical maximum, creating a sense of an even greater urgency to buy out the currency’s limited supply.

So should you invest now? Only if you are certain you won’t forget in which digital mattress you’ve hidden your hard-mined B’s…

VOCABULARY

to be on sb’s mind – zaprzątać czyjś umysł (o czymś)
to shatter sth – rozbić coś, pobić
to be here to stay – zadomowić się tu na dobre
to hold off – wstrzymać się
wait-and-see – poczekamy, zobaczymy (np. sposób podejścia do czegoś)
to overplay one’s hand – zbyt mocno blefować, przedobrzyć (np. z czekaniem na coś)
to prop sth up – podeprzeć coś, wesprzeć
fundamental – tu: będący podstawą, stanowiący podłoże czegoś
to refer to sth – odwoływać się do czegoś
ICO (initial cryptocurrency offering) – debiut nowej kryptowaluty; nowa kryptowaluta
fundamentals – tu: wartości bazowe (np. złoto)
inevitably – nieuchronnie
to drive sth back somewhere – przenosić coś gdzieś z powrotem, napędzać coś w kierunku czegoś
to realize – zdawać sobie sprawę
host – gospodarz
to lose out to sb – przegrać z kimś
overall – ogólny
to be gaining momentum – nabierać rozpędu
seemingly – na pozór
out of nowhere – bez przyczyny, z niezrozumiałego powodu
stair step – stopień na schodach (również o wykresie schodkowym)
plateau – płaszczyzna, płaski trend
unceasing – nieustający
inherent – wbudowany, własny
to echo sth – powtarzać coś (po kimś, za kimś)
adamant – stanowczy, zdecydowany
phenomenon – fenomen
reminiscent of sth – podobny do czegoś, przypominający coś
dot com bubble – bąbel/boom ekonomiczny związany z witrynami „.com” pod koniec lat 90-tych XX wieku
to flow into sth – wpływać gdzieś, wchodzić
somewhat – nieco
gloomy – ponury, posępny
to draw a parallel – przeprowadzić analogię/paralelę
let’s be frank… – powiedzmy (sobie) szczerze…
correction – korekta, skorygowanie (tendencji rynkowej)
immediate future – najbliższa przyszłość
confident – pewny
rush – tu: pęd, bieg (w kierunku czegoś)
bullish – zwyżkujący, optymistyczny (o rynku, sytuacji inwestycyjnej) (pot.)
hype – szum (np. medialny); tu: chwilowy entuzjazm inwestycyjny
underperforming – osiągający słabe wyniki (mniejsze niż oczekiwane)
golden ticket – złoty bilet; tu: szansa na wielki sukces, wielka szansa
savvy – znający się na czymś, łebski
to bear sth out – wytrzymać coś, znieść
upcoming – nadchodzący
sell-offs – sprzedaże (np. masowe)
in the wake of sth – w wyniku czegoś, w następstwie
downtrend – trend zniżkowy/spadkowy
to reap dividends – zebrać plony/zyski (czegoś)
further down the line – w przyszłości, za jakiś czas
at its height – u swego szczytu
to be in the trillions – mieć wielkość bilionów (US)
market cap – kapitalizacja rynkowa
roughly – z grubsza
to have a long way to go – mieć przed sobą długą drogę
rumoured – o którym chodzą słuchy
following X – po X, w następstwie X
hesitation – wahanie
mainstream – należący do głównego nurtu, będący czymś powszechnym/popularnym
futures contracts – kontrakty giełdowe na przyszłe dostawy
to predict – prognozować
…come X = …gdy nadejdzie X
limited supply – ograniczona podaż
combined with sth – w połączeniu z czymś
halving – zmniejszenie o połowę
in the six digits – mający 5 zer (o kwocie bliskiej miliona)
milestone – kamień milowy
mining – wydobycie, wykopywanie (monet Bitcoin)
to ensure – zapewnić
built-in – wbudowany
to exhaust sth – wyczerpać coś
endgame – koniec gry, ostatnia faza (czegoś)
to dry out – wyczerpać się, wyschnąć (o źródle czegoś)
circulation – obrót (pieniądza)
inaccessible – niedostępny
to exist – istnieć
to dilute sth – rozpuścić coś, tu: uczynić mniej wartościowym
halfway point – środek drogi, połowa trasy/drogi
tradable – nadający się do handlu/obrotu
a sense of urgency – nagląca sytuacja, poczucie zniecierpliwienia
mattress – materac

by Prochor Aniszczuk

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